Project
Solo research · Apr - Jul 2026 · NPCI & RBI data, 2016-2026
India's UPI ecosystem, mapped end to end. I built a MySQL pipeline over a decade of NPCI and RBI transaction data, cleaned and standardized it (288 messy app-name variants collapsed into 276 canonical entries), then ran the analysis in Python with Pandas to see what the numbers actually say about adoption, growth and market power.
Explosive growth. UPI is compounding at a 53.1% CAGR against legacy payment rails and now accounts for 10.9% of digital payment value nationwide.
The Northeast leapfrog. Underserved states are adopting UPI faster than wealthier ones, a pattern backed by real statistical correlation, not just a headline.
The democratization paradox. An open protocol that still consolidated into a PhonePe / Google Pay duopoly, with an HHI of 3,335, officially "highly concentrated." Included a case study on what happened when Paytm got regulatory-hit in 2024.